The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts an increase in the unemployment rate in Pakistan from 4.5% in 2020 to 5.1% in 2021.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report “A Long and Difficult Rise” predicted Pakistan’s GDP growth from -0.4% in 2020 to 1% in 2021.
The IMF has estimated the inflation rate for 2021 at 8.8% from 10.7% in 2020. The current account balance should be negative at 2.5% in 2021, from 1.1% in 2020.
The World Bank (WB) has estimated Pakistani GDP growth of 0.5%, inflation of 9% and a current account at less than 1.5% of GDP.
The IMF further said remittances fell significantly during the initial foreclosure period, but showed signs of recovery. However, the risk of a decrease in payments and remittances from migrant workers to their countries of origin is very high, especially for countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Guatemala, Pakistan, the Philippines and Sub-Saharan Africa in general.
The International Monetary Fund turned slightly positive on the global economy this year, but warned of a “long, uneven and uncertain” recovery.
The global economy is expected to contract 4.4% in 2020, an upward revision from a June 4.9% estimate (which has now also been revised to -5.2% ” a new methodology used by the IMF).
The IMF forecast assumes that the social distance to the coronavirus pandemic will continue into 2021 and that local transmission will diminish everywhere by the end of 2022.
“We expect a slightly less severe, if still deep, recession in 2020 compared to our June forecast,” IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in the latest World Economic Outlook.